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Induct The Hawk: The Andre Dawson HOF Case

On January 6th, 2010 the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their selections for the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY.  2010 represents the best chance for one of the most overlooked players in the history of the game: Andre Dawson.

Below you'll find a compelling analysis of Dawson's HOF case by a longtime Harpoon Harbor associate.  Before we lay out the case for Dawson, I'd like to share a little story which everyone should know about him.  In an era of greed, holdouts and business becoming more important than the game we sometimes forget that there are the rare breed of athletes who play to play.  Andre Dawson was one of those guys and demonstrated it when he came to Chicago.

From the Andre Dawson Wikipedia page:

He played for the Expos until after the 1986 season, when he took a pay cut to sign with the Chicago Cubs. Dawson's knee injuries were aggravated by playing on artificial turf in Montreal, and he hoped playing home games on grass at Wrigley Field would prolong his career. Dawson had campaigned for the Cubs to sign him during the offseason, but general manager Dallas Green resisted, insisting that the Cubs would start Brian Dayett in right field (Dawson had moved from center field to right field in his final two seasons as an Expo, due to the condition of his knees), and that one player could not make a 71-91 team a 91-71 team. When the Cubs opened camp in Mesa, Arizona that spring, Dawson and his agent Dick Moss arrived in an attempt to secure a contract with the Cubs. Dawson and Moss' stunt was derided as a "dog and pony show" by Green, who still wouldn't make an offer to Dawson. Two weeks into spring training, Dawson turned the tables on Green and the Cubs, presenting Green with a blank contract. Green filled in the contract with lean figures: a $500,000 base salary with $250,000 in incentives if Dawson made the All-Star team, started the All-Star Game, or won the National League MVP award.

He did all three, enjoying one of his finest seasons in 1987 in terms of raw statistics. He became the Cubs' starting right fielder, and hit 49 home runs and was named the league's MVP, finally winning after the two years as runner-up in Montreal. Sadly, Dawson wasn't able to turn around the Cubs' fortunes: although the team contended for the first half of the season and were even in first place in early May, they finished the 1987 season at 76-85, last in the National League East.

I love that story.  Handing the GM a blank contract?  Has that been done since?  Maybe, but certainly not in an MVP season.  The "blank contract" story coupled with the strength of his arm are two of the biggest reasons that I love Dawson.  Whenever I see an outfielder throw a two, three or four-hop attempt to get a runner at the plate I remember The Hawk's arm.  In 1987 I saw him throw a perfect strike from the right field wall.  No hops.  I dont even think the catcher had to move his glove an inch.  A 350 ft laser from Sheffield to Clark.

The Hawk was the first player to win MVP on a last place team. No small feat and since been done only by A-Rod in '03 with the Rangers.

During his own HOF induction speech in 2005, Ryne Sandberg helped make the case for Dawson:

"No player in baseball history worked harder, suffered more or did it better than Andre Dawson.  He's the best I've ever seen. I watched him win an MVP for a last-place team in 1987 [with the Cubs], and it was the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen in baseball.  He did it the right way, the natural way, and he did it in the field and on the bases and in every way, and I hope he will stand up here someday."

Andre Dawson's HOF case, as presented by Harbor Associate Dan:

I have long believed that Andre Dawson is among the very finest ballplayers of his generation. Though his numbers fail to earn the respect of the Bill James set, they're HOF-worthy.

Consider:

• 438 home runs in a dead ball era (Winfield, 465; Rice, 382; Puckett, 207)
• 1591 RBI (Winfield, 1833 ; Rice, 1451; Puckett, 1085)
• 1987 MVP; runner-up in 1981 and 1983 (Winfield, no MVPs, never runner-up (amazingly) ; Rice, 1978 MVP, never runner-up; Puckett, No MVPs, runner-up 1992)
• 8 Gold Gloves (Winfield, 7;Rice, 0;Puckett, 6)
• .277 career average (Winfield, .283; Rice, .298; Puckett .316)
• 314 SB (Winfield, 223; Rice, 58; Puckett, 134)
• .323 OBP (Winfield, .352; Rice, .353; Puckett .360)

I chose the contemporaries above for a few reasons: 1. They're all in the HOF. 2. They played in roughly the same time period as Dawson. 3. They were all outfielders who were roughly similar in style of play to Dawson. Obviously this is an imperfect comparison, but they're closer to Dawson's style than Tony Gwynn or Rickey Henderson (both worthy HOF'ers).

The biggest knocks from Rob Neyer and his gang of stats nerds is that Dawson's OBP is too weak for inclusion in the HOF. However, the balance of the rest of the statistics demonstrate that Dawson is among the best from his era-- and it's my position that "best of your peers" should be the measure for the HOF. It's one way to make sure that each era is properly judged. You judge the players against their contemporaries.

I think it's also important to consider the intangibles-- the things that aren't included in the numbers. Dawson was a 5-tool player. He was a fantastic CF before his knees forced him into RF, where he continued to play stellar defense. He had a cannon for an arm. He could steal bases for half of his career, and did so in more prodigious fashion than the contemporaries above. He was well-respected and feared by opponents.

He hit for power (his 49 home runs in '87 are the single-season high for the 1980s; 250 in the '80s (5th highest total in all of baseball for that time period). He fielded better than his peers. He could run-- on the bases and in the gaps of the OF.

If you look at baseballreference.com (and I recommend you do), his closest statistical contemporary is Dave Winfield.

Is Winfield better? Yes. No shame in that.

Is Jim Rice? Hell no. Had Dawson played in Boston during his prime he would have been in by now. While Rice was a very good player, he is not Dawson's equal.

Puckett? Tough to say. His career was obviously cut short.

Hopefully this will be the year that The Hawk gets his rightful acknowledgment as one of baseball's greatest.  With a year over year increase to 65.9% of the votes last year - roughly 10% short of the required 75% - his chances look good.  With the steroid era putting the legitimacy of many potential first ballot guys in question, the stars are aligned for Dan and I to follow up on our 1995 promise to drive to Cooperstown when Andre Dawson is inducted.

Good luck, Hawk.  This is your year.